In a recent interview for the program Acentos, hosted by Nelson and broadcast through the BBVA Research podcast in Latin America, the chief economist for Peru, Francisco Grippa, presented the Peru Situation report and shared a complete view on the evolution of the Peruvian economy in the second half of 2025 and the outlook for 2026.
Grippa confirmed that BBVA Research maintains the Peruvian GDP growth projection at 3.1% for 2025, despite a complex international context. Among the factors that support this forecast are:
High terms of trade thanks to high copper and gold prices, key products in the Peruvian trade balance.
Business confidence at the highest levels in the last five years, which boosts private investment.
Start of large copper mining projects in the second half of the year.
However, he warned that the global economy could play against. Trade tensions with the United States, with tariffs affecting Peruvian exports (such as agro-exports and textiles), generate both direct and indirect impacts on investment and global consumption. Added to this is the slowdown in China and the U.S., both key trading partners for Peru.
Peru 2025: Uneven Semester and Electoral Risks
For the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 3.5% is estimated, which would moderate between 2.5% and 3% in the second half of the year. The causes of this moderation include:
Demanding comparison with the good agricultural performance of 2024.
Increased impact of trade tensions.
Growing electoral uncertainty ahead of the 2026 general elections.
Exchange rate: Volatility in the final stretch of the year.
The Peruvian sol has shown strength recently, but Grippa anticipates possible volatility towards the end of the year, with an exchange rate that could close December 2025 between S/ 3.65 and S/ 3.75 per dollar. The reasons:
- Favorable terms of trade that support the sol;
- Uncertainty about monetary and tariff policy in the US;
- Defensive market strategies in the face of the Peruvian electoral process;
- Controlled inflation and interest rate.
Controlled inflation and stable interest rate
One of the most encouraging news is that inflation remains within the BCRP's target range, standing at 1.7%.
This control allows the benchmark interest rate to remain stable at 4.5%, a level considered neutral by BBVA Research. "With inflation under control and the economy close to its potential, there is no reason to modify monetary policy in the short term," said Grippa.
Although the fiscal accounts are currently stable - with a fiscal deficit of 2.7% and relatively low public debt - Grippa warned about legislative proposals that could put pressure on public finances in the coming years. "If initiatives that reduce revenues or increase spending without support prosper, the fiscal outlook would become more complicated," he warned.
Conclusion: Favorable outlook, but with challenges on the horizon
According to BBVA Research, the baseline scenario for Peru in 2025 is positive, with economic growth, controlled inflation, stable currency and high business confidence. However, external threats -such as global protectionism- and internal factors -such as political uncertainty- could generate turbulence.
Francisco Grippa's analysis in the Acentos program offers a clear but cautious look at the Peruvian economy. As the electoral process approaches, it will be key to maintain an orderly fiscal environment and promote policies that will sustain the economic recovery.
Source: Interview with Francisco Grippa, chief economist for Peru at BBVA Research, in the Acentos program. June 2025.
El Autor
